Who Believes God Forgives? Divine Punishment Beliefs Across Cultures and Economies

Abstract

Do people believe God punishes or forgives? We compile the most comprehensive portrait of divine punishment and forgiveness beliefs to date, integrating five datasets spanning individual surveys, ethnographic records, and historical polities. Three findings emerge. First, in the United States, 79% of GSS respondents report that God forgives them while only 17% feel divinely punished—an asymmetry that holds even among weekly attenders. Second, cross-culturally, moralizing high gods appear in only 26% of ethnographically coded societies, concentrated in agrarian polities with supralocal authority. Third, education, income, and attendance are the strongest individual-level predictors of divine temperament beliefs, with substantial heterogeneity across religious traditions. These beliefs matter for economics because they shape risk preferences, social trust, and institutional compliance.