Technological Obsolescence and Populist Voting: Evidence from U.S. Metropolitan Areas

Abstract

We document a striking temporal pattern in the relationship between technological obsolescence and populist voting. Using data on the modal age of production technologies across 896 U.S. metropolitan areas, we find that technology vintage strongly predicts Republican vote share in 2016, 2020, and 2024—but not in 2012. More revealing: technology age predicts the gains in GOP support from Romney (2012) to Trump (2016), but does not predict subsequent changes. This asymmetry suggests technological obsolescence marked a one-time political realignment rather than an ongoing causal process. Regions using older technology shifted toward Trump in 2016 and have remained there since—a pattern consistent with geographic sorting rather than technology directly causing populist preferences.