Does Local Climate Policy Build Demand for National Action? Evidence from Swiss Energy Referendums

Abstract

Five Swiss cantons adopted comprehensive energy laws between 2011 and 2017. When Swiss voters faced a federal referendum to extend similar measures nationally, did this local experience build support—or satisfy demand? Using a spatial regression discontinuity design at internal canton borders, I find that voters in treated cantons were less likely to support national energy legislation. The primary specification—restricted to same-language borders to eliminate the French-German confound—yields an estimate of $-5.9$ percentage points ($p = 0.011$; wild cluster bootstrap $p \approx 0.06$). A Difference-in-Discontinuities design controlling for permanent border effects confirms the negative direction ($-4.7$ pp, $p = 0.008$). The evidence favors the "thermostatic" model of public opinion: citizens who already experienced local climate policy reduced their demand for federal action. For climate policy strategy, the implication is sobering—sub-national success may cap, rather than catalyze, national ambition.