Shining Light on Nothing? Null Effects of Salary Transparency Laws on New Hire Wages

Abstract

Salary transparency laws require employers to post wage ranges in job advertisements. Using Census Quarterly Workforce Indicators covering 48,000 county-quarter observations of new hire earnings across 17 states (2015–2023), I test whether these mandates affect wages or gender pay gaps. I find nothing. The Callaway-Sant'Anna difference-in-differences estimate is +1.0% (SE=1.4%), statistically indistinguishable from zero. The gender differential is $-0.7$ percentage points (SE=1.9%), also null. These nulls survive border-county discontinuity designs, placebo tests, and heterogeneity-robust estimation. The minimum detectable effect of 3.9% rules out the wage declines predicted by commitment theory or the equity gains promised by advocates. Transparency mandates appear inert: neither the fears nor the hopes are realized. Policymakers seeking pay equity should look beyond disclosure.