Does EITC Eligibility Affect Employment for Childless Workers?\ from the Age-25 Threshold

Abstract

We examine whether the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) affects employment for childless workers using the sharp eligibility threshold at age 25. Using real microdata from the Current Population Survey (2015-2024), we implement a regression discontinuity design comparing childless adults just above and below the cutoff. Our main finding is null: we detect no robust discontinuity in employment at the age-25 threshold. While employment increases with age throughout the 22-28 range, the pattern is consistent with smooth age-employment dynamics rather than a discrete EITC effect. Our preferred quadratic specification yields an economically small and statistically insignificant estimate of -0.3 percentage points (SE = 1.8 pp). We also find no heterogeneous effects by education level or occupation automation exposure. These null results are consistent with prior work suggesting that the small credit amount ($\sim$\$600 maximum) and low awareness among childless filers limit EITC's labor supply effects for this population. Our findings inform debates about expanding the childless EITC, suggesting that simply extending eligibility without increasing the credit amount may have limited employment effects.